FRISCO, Texas – It's our first divisional game edition of Here We Goooo, breaking down a few of the most important factors that will decides Cowboys-Eagles round one. Dallas is still in search of their first win at home, while Philadelphia is looking to pick up their fifth straight win. Let's jump into it:
1. Make contact on Barkley early - Saquon Barkley has always been one of the best running backs in the NFL. Through eight games with the Eagles, he has elevated his game to another level behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and a friendly scheme from a familiar face for Cowboys fans, Kellen Moore.
Barkley's numbers are ridiculous, to say the least. He leads the second-best rushing offense in the NFL, has accounted for 33.8% of the Eagles' scrimmage yards this year (highest percentage in the league), and has generated 263 rushing yards over expected, the 2nd-most in the NFL and most that Barkley has had through nine weeks in his career. Oh, and he's also started to hurdle backwards over defenders.
So how in the world do you stop this guy?!?
While there isn't a clear-cut answer, the best way is to get to him early. Barkley is 2nd in the league in yards before contact amongst running backs with at least 50 carries this year (3.9) and is still able to pick up right around two yards after contact too. Put that together and he's getting the Eagles close to six yards per carry.
Sure, getting to a running back early is a formula for success against anybody, but it's especially the case for the Cowboys considering they've given up more yards than expected on 38.4% of opposing rushes this season, the second highest rate in the NFL.
Dallas will especially have to be strong in between the tackles, as the Eagles offense ranks first in the league offensively in that area, while the Cowboys defense is dead last in the category. Attention to injuries, the loss, and other factors this past week took away from the fact that the Cowboys held a capable rushing offense in the Falcons to just 100 yards on 30 carries, and they'll need to find a way to limit Barkley and the Eagles offense too if they want a chance in this game.
2. Defense needs their best game of the season - When Cooper Rush went 4-1 as Dallas' starter in 2022, a large part of those victories were Dallas' defense stepping up, creating turnovers, and constricting the opposing offenses to take some weight off of the offense's backs. Fast forward two years, and this unit has been hammered by injuries, is struggling to create turnovers and will need their best performance of the year on Sunday to set Rush up for success. In this game, there's good news and bad news for the Cowboys defense.
Let's start with the bad news first: After giving up seven takeaways through Weeks 1-5 (2nd most in the NFL), Jalen Hurts has gone four straight games without a giveaway, the longest streak of his career as a starting quarterback. Hurts also has the highest completion percentage over expected of his career (league-leading 7.1%), and has the most time to throw of any quarterback in the NFL (3.09 seconds).
Three of the four interceptions he threw earlier this season came when the pocket was clean, and he just made poor decisions to throw into tight or double coverage. If the opportunity presents itself, Dallas needs to find a way to come up with a turnover.
Now for the good news: Micah Parsons is on track to make his return to the field since going down with an injury against the Giants in Week 4, which gives the Cowboys their best pass rusher back. Osa Odighizuwa is coming off one of his best games, generating a team-high seven pressures on his 22 pass rushes, the most by a Cowboys defender since Week 1. Four of those pressures occurred within 2.5 seconds of the snap, and he was able to get int the backfield despite facing a double team on 54.5% of his pass rushes. Carl Lawson stepped up big time with two sacks against Atlanta, and Jourdan Lewis was tied for the highest coverage grade amongst corners in Week 9 according to PFF (90.7).
The Cowboys have had players step up in Parsons' absence. Now that he's back in the fold, his play needs to elevate those around him and open doors for other contributors with so much attention going to stopping number 11
3. Give Cooper Rush a clean pocket - Cooper Rush has been here before in his career. Dak Prescott gets injured, and he's handed the keys to the offense. Rush hasn't however been tasked with trying to get the Cowboys back into the playoff picture, and he'll need a clean pocket if he wants to do so.
Looking back at 2022, Rush was 23/54 (42.6%) for 321 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions when facing pressure. He was sacked seven times, fumbled twice, and his completion percentage over expected was -10.4%.
When he faced no pressure, Rush completed 71 of 108 passes for a 65.75 completion percentage, paired with 730 yards and three touchdowns.
Of course, a clean pocket and time to throw is a recipe for success for any quarterback, but it'll especially be the case with Rush as he tries to lead an offense he hasn't spent a lot of time with as the starter in the last two seasons.
When Rush started in 2022, CeeDee Lamb was his unsurprisingly his top target, catching 23 of his 35 targets for 260 yards and a touchdown in those five games. Even with Lamb still battling through his shoulder injury, it's safe to expect he'll continue to be Rush's primary target.
