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Here We Goooo

Here We Goooo: Is 2025 the year of the bounce back?

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FRISCO, Texas – The regular season editions of "Here We Goooo" will return later in the year, but who says we can't have some in the offseason?

In our first offseason installment, let's look at some questions that'll carry over from the end of the 2024 season into 2025, where the Cowboys will look to get back into the playoffs with more of their star players back healthy and ready to play:

1. Can the Cowboys improve offensively on early downs?

A majority of an offense's success at any level of football boils down to the situations they set themselves up in on first and second down. Mike McCarthy harped on that a lot this season as well, so let's look at the numbers:

We'll start with first down – namely first and 10 since that's how most of the Cowboys sets of downs began. Dallas ran the ball 191 times, good for 26th in the NFL, for 705 yards (27th) and averaged 3.69 yards per rush. Conversely, they threw 235 passes (3rd) for 1,557 yards (8th) averaging 6.63 yards per play. It's evident that the Cowboys were not afraid to throw the ball on first down, and they had success with it.

If you get yourself, into second and three scenarios, it's a given that you're setting yourself up pretty well for a first down conversion in the next couple plays. For the purpose of this study though, let's say the Cowboys ran the ball and picked up their average of around 4 yards, setting up second and six. It's a scenario the Cowboys faced 33 times this season, rushing 12 times for 29 yards (27th) and an average of 2.42 yards, converting just 2 first downs.

The interesting twist there is on their 21 passes, they only picked up 34 yards, the worst in the league when throwing on second and six. That gets us to just about third down and four in our average Cowboys drive, so let's bring this home.

Dallas didn't even bother to run the ball on third and four this season, and instead threw on all 17 instances they faced that down and distance. There, they were much more successful, picking up a league best 219 yards and an average of 12.88 yards per play.

Sure, this is a very specific scenario and not every set of downs will look like this for the Cowboys. But the bottom line is the Cowboys struggled in 2024 to set themselves up in third and manageable situations.

If we define third and manageable as third and four or less, they ran 71 plays and moved the chains 66.19% of the time in 2024. In 2023, it was 88 third and four or shorter plays for 52 conversions, which was a lower conversion rate (59%) but an increase in 17 opportunities to move the chains too. Getting your offense into those manageable scenarios will end up paying off in the long run, and it was one of the reasons why Dallas had the #1 scoring offense in 2023.

2. Can the defense build off a strong finish to the season?

Mike Zimmer deserves a lot of credit for how the Cowboys defense improved during the back half of the season. Of course, getting Micah Parsons back and healthy played a big piece in that equation as well.

That said, Dallas also left a lot on the table as well. Sure, injuries to many of their major personnel had a lot to do with that, but regardless there are areas where the Cowboys must be better if they want to get back to their winning ways.

Let's start with the good from 2024: The Cowboys were second in the league in sacks per pass attempt (10.16%) and had the 9th best 3rd down conversion rate (36.59%). Both aspects to be expected from a Zimmer defense, which excelled as getting to the quarterback and getting the offense off the field after third down.

Now, to the not-so-good: Dallas 355.2 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 5.77 yards per play (29th). They still struggled to stop the run, giving up 137.1 yards on the ground per game (29th) despite some good showings against quality backs like Saquon Barkley. And to put a cap on it, they were the worst red zone and goal to go defense, allowing scores on 75% and 88.24% respectively to opposing offenses in those scenarios.

So, while there is a lot on the table in terms of who does and doesn't return in terms of coaches and personnel, there are areas where this defense can get back to their best football.

3. Is 2025 the year of the bounce back?

I don't have to tell you that injuries were a storyline throughout the course of the year for Dallas in 2024. Will 2025 be the year of the bounce back for the Cowboys key players?

If it is, it will likely all start with Dak Prescott. Through his first nine games before a season ending hamstring injury, Prescott wavered from his 2023 MVP runner-up performance, throwing eight interceptions to go with 11 touchdowns, compared to the nine picks he had thrown the entire year before. When Prescott is clicking, so is the rest of this offense.

And speaking of the rest of the offense, Prescott's reinsertion could open the doors for their respective bounce back seasons too. Take Jake Ferguson for example, who had just 59 receptions for 494 yards and no touchdowns in 2024, with drop struggles mixed in. Or maybe Jonathan Mingo, who caught just five passes for 46 yards after being dealt for a fourth-round pick at the trade deadline.

The offensive line will look for a bounce back season too, especially at left tackle with Tyler Guyton, who worked through penalty, injury, and protection injuries all season long. The Cowboys are confident he can develop into a good player for them, but he needs the time on the practice field to get the reps necessary to spark that development.

On the defensive side of the ball, can Sam Williams return from his season-ending injury and produce at a similar level from his first two seasons? He tallied 8.5 sacks and would be a welcome addition back to the defensive line opposite Micah Parsons.

In the secondary, can Caelen Carson put his rookie struggles behind him and get back to playing aggressive, tight coverage? Teams picked on him at times this season, but Carson has the frame and tools necessary to help this secondary when playing his best.

There's a lot of "if's" for each of these players, and all of them having a bounce back season is unlikely. That said, not all of them need to have a drastically different season for the Cowboys to get back in the playoff picture.

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