FRISCO, Texas – We're back to our regularly scheduled programming for Here We Goooo, looking at the key factors that will decide the 41st meeting between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. Let's dive in:
- Bring Jordan Mason to the ground
Part of the issue with Dallas' inability to stop the run through six games of the season has been a lack of getting ball carriers to the ground and missing tackles. In San Francisco, they'll face the NFL's leader in broken tackles (53) with Jordan Mason. The Dallas defense has missed tackles on 15.8% of their tackle opportunities this season, the highest rate in the NFL. It's a stunning change from a year ago, where the Cowboys had the lowest missed tackle rate at 8%.
Mason is the NFL's second leading rusher so far this season, and will likely be leaned upon heavily with Christian McCaffery out and some of the 49ers best receivers potentially not being able to play. In 2023, Mason was the 49ers leading rusher against the Cowboys with 69 yards on ten carries to go along with a touchdown. If the Dallas defense can force a stat line similar to that with the way this defense has played to start the year, it'll be a resounding win.
- Make plays when San Francisco brings pressure
It sounds odd to say, but Dak Prescott has actually played better when teams send a blitz at him. He's completed 30 of 56 passes against it for four of his eight touchdowns and has only thrown one interception. When he hasn't been blitzed, Prescott has thrown five interceptions and was sacked 13 times. If this trend is to carry on, Prescott will have to take advantage of every blitz San Francisco sends as they only send it 18.5% of the time, the fifth lowest rate in the league.
Furthermore, when Prescott is pressured, he's 33 of 57 for 426 yards and five touchdowns on 73 dropbacks. His yards per attempt (7.5) is higher than when he isn't pressured (7), and his completion percentage over expected is +5.4%, compared to -0.7% when he isn't facing pressure. The 49ers have the lowest blitz rate in the league because their defense is ninth in the league in pass rush win rate (45%) and has two top ten players in pass rush win rate at their respective positions, with Nick Bosa as the 10th best Edge rusher (22%) and Maliek Collins as the 6th best defensive tackle (15%). With that much pass rush firepower, they don't even need to blitz and can send defenders into coverage. If Prescott is able to make plays when the 49ers do send an extra defender or two, it could bode well for the Cowboys' offense given the success he's had in those situations thus far this year.
- Get CeeDee Lamb the ball, fast
The connection, or lack thereof, between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb has been a disappointment to start the season. And yet, Lamb's production is similar to his historic 2023 season up to this point. He's only had two less catches and 8 less yards through the first trimester of the year in comparison to last year, and if the Cowboys can get the ball into his hands, he can make things work.
Lamb's 119 yards after the catch over expected this season is the second most in the league. Getting the ball to him on easy, quick throws may be the first step to getting Lamb and Prescott on the same page. And CeeDee can make defenders miss too, with 9 forced missed tackles this season being the 7th best in the league amongst receivers. The Cowboys are second in the league in passing yards per game, and if Lamb and Prescott find their stride together, it'll be hard to keep this offense out of first in that category.
