FRISCO, Texas – The Cowboys head back on the road to Atlanta this week in search of their elusive fourth win of the 2024 season. We've got a loaded edition of Here We Goooo to break down what to watch and how it'll impact the outcome of the game. Let's dive right in:
Take Bijan Robinson out of the equation
The Cowboys have faced a lot of high-end running backs this season with Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Alvin Kamara all having success against a Dallas defense that tied for worst in the league in yards allowed on the ground per game. Things don't get any easier with Bijan Robinson taking the field for the Falcons. Robinson's usage in Atlanta's offense has been a roller coaster experience over the course of his career thus far, but he's made his reps count. Robinson has the ninth most rushing yards this season (546) to go along with four rushing touchdowns.
Robinson has been at his best on under center runs, recording a league-best 57.6% success rate in that situation. He's garnered 176 yards and a touchdown in 33 such carries, good for 5.3 yards per carry. Why is that specific situation important to watch? The Cowboys defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and 2nd-highest success rate (49.3) in the league when facing under center runs in 2024.
Dallas did a good job in the first half against San Francisco at setting the edge in the run game, and they'll need to do so again on Sunday across all four quarters as Robinson loves to get to the outside and into space. He carries the ball outside 74.1% of the time, where he's gained 394 yards and all four of his rushing touchdowns on 86 carries. His success rate is 43% in those types of runs, and he's gained 10+ yards on 7 of those 86 carries.
Who can generate more pressure?
Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but the line of scrimmage is where football games at every level are won and lost. This game features two teams that have struggled at the line of scrimmage, and more specifically have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback.
Let's start with the Dallas defense: They've put up a 14% quick pressure rate this season, good for 21st in the league, a year removed from their league-leading 24.2% rate in 2023. On average, it takes Dallas 2.90 seconds to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, tied for the longest time in the league. There is some good news, however. The Falcons offensive line has struggled uncharacteristically at times this season, with All-Pro right guard Chris Lindstrom (who missed Wednesday's practice) allowing 30 pressures through eight weeks, already more than the 29 he gave up during the entirety of last season. Left tackle Jake Matthews has allowed a 11.2% pressure rate as well, his highest rate since his Pro Bowl 2018 campaign. Furthermore, Cowboys defensive end Carl Lawson has come along nicely over the last three weeks, generating a team-high nine pressures in 50 pass rushes, going for a 18% pressure rate. That's right around where Micah Parsons was (18.2) through his first four games of the season. If Lawson can keep it up and the Cowboys can finally find push on the line of scrimmage, it could bode well against a quarterback who struggles against pressure in Kirk Cousins, who has thrown six of his seven interceptions when facing pressure.
On the flip side, Dallas' young offensive line will face one of the the worst pass rush units in the league on Sunday. The Falcons have tallied a league worst six sacks and 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks this season. Matthew Judon, the Pro-Bowl edge rusher that Atlanta traded a third-round pick for in August, has generated pressure on just 7.9% of his pass rushes this season, the only time his rate has been below 10% since 2018. Regardless, Judon will still be a challenge for Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele who have struggled at points this season. The bright spot for the Cowboys offensive front has been Tyler Smith, who has the lowest pressure rate (2.8) in the league amongst players with at least 100 pass blocking snaps at left guard, and has not given up a sack either.
Find a way to win on first down
Early downs have been a point of emphasis for Mike McCarthy throughout the course of the season, but the Cowboys have not showed much improvement as the year has gone along. First down sets the tone for the rest of the set of downs and the drive, and life gets difficult when you're only able to muster a yard or two heading into second down. The Cowboys offense has a 32.5% success rate on first down, the worst in the NFL.
Even worse, the Cowboys have a 22.8% rushing success rate on first down, also good for worst in the league. It's also the second lowest rate by an offense since 2016, which goes to show how poor the Dallas run game has been this year. They've run the ball 87 times on first down for 260 yards, averaging three yards per carry and -75 rushing yards over expected as a whole. To put it into perspective, there are 20 individual players that have more rushing yards on first down than the Cowboys do as a team.
The silver lining in this game is that the Falcons defense has a 31.5% missed tackle rate against first down runs this season, the highest in the NFL. Dallas doesn't need to be elite on first down or elite in the running game, but if they're able to set themselves up better on second and third down, it makes things easier for an offense that has constantly gotten behind in down and distance this season.
