FRISCO, Texas – The Cowboys head on the road Sunday to face a rejuvenated Washington Commanders franchise led by their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Can Dallas break their five game losing streak against their old friend? Let's dive in to how they could in this week's "Here We Goooo:"
1. Take Jayden Daniels' legs out of the equation
A large part of Washington's resurgence up to this point in the season has been their 2024 draft class, led by second overall pick Jayden Daniels who has had a strong start to his NFL career. A year removed from winning the Heisman at LSU, Daniels has used both his arm and his legs to get the Commanders offense going in his rookie year.
That hasn't been the case recently though, after Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers that sidelined him for the remainder of the game. He would return the next week but hasn't been himself in the four games since the injury, especially on the ground.
In the six games that Daniels was injured, he completed 75.3% of his passes and ran 63 times for 322 yards and four touchdowns. In the four games following his injury, Daniels only completed 59.5% of his passes and ran the ball 26 times for 110 yards and no touchdowns.
Washington's offense has seen a downwards trend over the last four games as well, going from scoring 29.6 points per game prior to Daniels' injury down to 22.5 over the last four games, including back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The offense generated a league-best +90.6 EPA through the first eight games of the season, but that number has dropped to -7.8 in their last three games. Daniels' run game opens up so much for the offense, and having it taken away has changed things.
With that being the case, the Cowboys need to make Daniels beat them with his arm on Sunday, especially if his completion percentage hangs around that 59.5% average where it's been the last four games. When Daniels has used his legs often, he's added as much as +33.5 EPA for the Commanders this season, so pushing that out of the equation is critical for Dallas.
2. The time to establish the run is now
Yes, I know the Cowboys have the second lowest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season. So how could this possibly be a game where they could start to open things up?
Keep in mind that Dallas has played six of the top nine rushing defenses in the NFL this season. On Sunday, they'll face a Commanders defense that has given up the most rushing yards of any team in the NFL (1,655) , and is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (149.9). Rico Dowdle was held in check last week by the Texans (who have the 9th lowest rushing yards allowed per game in the league), so this is the week to get things going.
If we're looking at what kinds of runs could open things up for Dowdle and the Cowboys, look for it to be on outside carries. Washington has give up 898 yards and nine touchdowns on outside runs this season, allowing 5.8 yards per carry too. Dowdle is averaging 4.1 yards per carry on those runs, albeit it just 31 of them for 128 yards.
Dowdle's also been better running after contact too, averaging 3.1 yards following the first contact from a defender. The Commanders defense is giving up 2.8 yards after contact on average, which should work in Dowdle's favor.
It's a steep hill to climb for Dallas' run game, that has generated a league-worst -143 rushing yards over expected in 2024, but if there's any game to lean on the run like Mike McCarthy has said he's wanted to, this is the game to do it.
3. Cooper Rush needs to be accurate
Cooper Rush's second start of the season was much better than his first, but he's going to have to play better – and throw the ball more accurately – if he wants to lead the Cowboys to wins this season.
Rush threw the ball 55 times in Dallas' Monday night loss to the Texans, completing 32 of those attempts for 354 yards. On 22.2% of his throws this season, he's thrown into tight windows, the highest rate in the league amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this year. He's completed seven passes on 26 attempts in those windows for 72 yards. The positive spin there is the Commanders defense has given up a league-high five touchdowns on tight window throws, so that could ultimately work out in Rush's favor.
The fact that Rush and even Dak Prescott, who threw the second-highest percentage of tight window throws this season, have had to make those types of plays speaks to the lack of separation Dallas' wide receivers are getting. At the same time though, the Cowboys are only targeting open downfield receivers on 4.9% of their attempts this season, the second-lowest rate in the league. "Open downfield" is defined as a wide receiver who has 3 or more yards of separation, and a throw that travels 10 or more air yards. When Dak Prescott was playing, he completed all 15 of his attempts in that category for 291 yards and five touchdowns. Rush on the other hand is three for five with 51 yards and an interception.
On throws over 10 air yards this season, Rush has completed just four of his 20 attempts in the two games he's started this season, with a -24.1% completion percentage over expected. That's 9.9% lower than any other qualified quarterback this season. Dallas doesn't necessarily need to push the ball down the field with Rush, but they also can't become overly reliant and predictable in the short field.
