probably mean you have to give up your two first-round picks. So that means, someone the Cowboys really like would have to fall to the range of 8, 9 or 10 maybe?
So to fall that far, would it be somebody like one of those ends, Chris Long or Vernon Gholston? Or what about Glenn Dorsey? Even if those three players were to fall that far, the Cowboys wouldn't move up that high to get them. It certainly isn't a position of need.
We know the Cowboys aren't going to trade up to get a falling Matt Ryan.
So it has to be McFadden. Now, the latest draft speculations suggest the Arkansas running back probably won't get past the Jets, who own the sixth pick and have visited with him three different times. New York could even try to move up to the third or fourth spot to make sure they get him.
Now there could be another player who would pique the Cowboys' interest, but it's unlikely.
So for now, let's rule out trading up - at least into the Top 10. Nothing is to say the Cowboys wouldn't try to move up a few spots to grab a corner or a running back that has already fallen into the mid-teens.
But trading down has always seemed to be a more likely scenario, especially with two picks in the first round to fall back on.
Don't forget about last year. The Cowboys had the 22nd pick and not only had the player they wanted still on the board, but two of their top players were available. But Jerry knew a potential prize was still out there as well.
He didn't exactly want, or need, quarterback Brady Quinn, but he took advantage of the fact that other teams did. We all remember the trade with Cleveland that netted this 22nd overall pick.
The Cowboys were able to move down to the second round, and then back up again, eventually landing at the 26th spot to take Anthony Spencer.
Don't be surprised if the Cowboys look to do something similar on Saturday, either trying to shuffle the 22nd pick, or even the 28th. If the Cowboys could come away with another second-round pick, and/or a fourth-round pick, especially since they are expecting to trade theirs away to Tennessee for Pacman Jones, they will make that move in a heartbeat.
And not because Jerry just likes to make moves because it's fun and entertaining. It's all about maximizing the value.
Remember 2002 - the Cowboys had the sixth pick and wanted either Quentin Jammer or Roy Williams. Whichever player went No. 5 to San Diego, the Cowboys were going to get the other one.
Jammer goes to the Chargers. The Cowboys are sitting there ready to take Williams.
Instead, Jerry got a little greedy and risky. He traded with Kansas City, moved down two spots to the eighth pick and added a second-round pick as well. He still got Williams and another pick.
In 2004, the Cowboys liked the running backs on the board in Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones. But they also thought Tatum Bell and Julius Jones were rather close in talent. So the Cowboys traded their 21st overall pick, added another second, which wound up being Julius Jones, and added a first-round pick in 2005 that turned out to be Marcus Spears.
So the Cowboys may be sitting there at No. 22 come Saturday with guys like Aqib Talib of Kansas, or running backs Felix Jones and Jonathan Stewart still on the board. The Cowboys may like all of them, but yet still trade down to gain more picks.
In a draft like this with lots of good players, it certainly helps to be the team with two first-round picks.
So I'm fine with saying I don't know what's going to happen, because Jerry Jones doesn't either.
But just don't get upset when you've waited all day for the Cowboys to finally get on the clock, and yet they make a trade and move down again.
It's all about maximizing value.
And no one does that better than Jerry.
