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Science Lab: Dak needs to run more; here's why

10_31_ScienceLab

(Editor's note: The content provided is based on opinions and/or perspective of the DallasCowboys.com editorial staff and not the Cowboys football staff or organization.)

FRISCO, Texas — Here's the truth: if I pound the table any harder to see the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott give me what I want in 2024, I'll probably end up on injured reserve with a fractured wrist. Anyone who's followed my coverage for any amount of time knows I've been one of the biggest and most vocal proponents for Prescott to use his legs more often.

It's become somewhat of a headline going into Week 10 against the Atlanta Falcons and, hey, welcome to the party, I guess.

This is something I've wanted to see more of even before he suffered his season-ending ankle injury in 2020, pleading with Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan (and then Kellen Moore) to unleash the "Mississippi State Dak" to force defenses to play off-balance — not unlike what Patrick Mahomes does or what Brock Purdy did to the Cowboys in the third quarter of the Week 8 matchup, an adjustment that ultimately woke up the 49ers' offense.

Instead, in 2024, Prescott has never, and I mean never, run so little.

His 10 rushing attempts through the first seven games amounts to an average of only 1.42 runs per game. His 24 total rushing yards breaks down to only 3.42 total rushing yards per game, and he has only one rushing touchdown heading into Week 10.

The All-Pro quarterback is currently on pace to finish the season with only 24 rushing attempts, 58 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns through 17 games of play.

For context, that would amount to only six more rushing attempts, but also 35 fewer rushing yards and one touchdown less than in 2020 when he only played in five games all season.

He's also run for only three first downs in 28 quarters of play.

Three.

Career Record in Relation to QB Rushing Attempts -

  • Between 1-5 rushing attempts: 49-36
  • 5+ rushing attempts: 26-9

This would be concerning in and of itself, to be honest, but add in the fact that he has more or less been under siege from opposing defensive fronts as the Cowboys' offensive line continues to work to find consistency in protecting him, having been pressured at one of the highest rates in the NFL and sacked a total of 18 times to this point.

That's an average of 2.5 sacks per game, putting him on pace to be sacked 44 times before the regular season concludes.

Career Record in Relation to Sacks -

  • Sacked once or fewer: 41-11
  • Sacked 1+ times: 35-34

I mean, come on.

A season with 44 sacks taken would mark the second-highest sack rate since his 2018 season, when he was taken down 56 times, in a season wherein Prescott used his mobility to help lift the offense and the team far more often — 75 rushing attempts (career-high), 305 rushing yards (second-most of his career) and six rushing touchdowns (tied for career-high) — overcoming the pressure and high sack rate to produce a 10-6 season that included three fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives.

Flash forward to the present and it's as if something is handcuffing Prescott to the pocket, with head coach and offensive playcaller Mike McCarthy identifying that Something as the flow of each game.

And then there's owner and general manager Jerry Jones, who would prefer Prescott to stay put and not risk injury by scrambling as he once did; and there is some credence to that take, yes.

I, however, land wildly on the opposite side of it.

Given how many times Prescott has been pressured and hit, there is currently far more risk, in my humble opinion, in choosing to become a statue in the pocket, and especially if you factor in the ability for quarterbacks to give themselves up on runs outside of the pocket. Granted, his injury in 2020 occurred on a scramble play, but go back and look at the play before using that as a damnation of the Pro Bowler ever running the ball again.

He opted to run into the defender for a stiff-arm attempt before being dragged down and breaking his ankle in that process.

If he turns upfield to the right of his center, and then slides, he gains the same amount of yards, if not a couple more, and theoretically doesn't get injured (barring an injury on the slide itself).

It was a decision made in thousandths of a second and, as such, I'm much more willing to chalk the consequence of the run up to a fixable item — i.e., decision-making in open space from a quarterback who, at one point in his career, was adverse to sliding at all — than all but deleting the mobility as a weapon entirely.

He's undoubtedly learned that lesson, evidenced by the fact he's been sliding ever since.

Additionally, until he creates the threat of running past the line of scrimmage, his rollouts will continue to be less than effective in forcing linebackers and cornerbacks to abandon coverage for fear of Prescott running.

At this point, they know he won't run and so they're not even remotely considering crashing down to try and stop him; and that fuels another issue entirely:

Interceptions.

Tighter windows and more forced throws have led Prescott to eight interceptions through Week 9, with only 10 passing touchdowns, and a career-low passer rating of 84.5 with his completion percentage (63.7%) being the second-lowest mark since he entered the league in 2016.

As a related sidebar, I do wonder if the unwillingness to run extends to Prescott's mental approach to the topic, given he also battled ankle soreness in training camp — lest ye forget Bootgate — indicating there may be a correlation between age and the reality that Prescott will literally be forced to manage the surgically-repaired ankle, in some way, shape or form, for the rest of his life.

"I've got people for that," he said in Oxnard.

Hmm.

Still, the Cowboys are, needless to say (but I'll say it anyway, because it's my party and I'll science if I want to) not the same team when his giveaways begin ticking upward.

Career Record in Relation to INTs -

  • 0 INTs thrown: 51-14
  • 1 INT thrown: 17-16
  • 2+ INTs thrown: 7-16

Adding more context to this argument for Prescott running that will and should reduce sacks taken and also create more havoc in coverages that leads to fewer interceptions and more chunk plays, I'll remind you of what the Cowboys' point differential is in 2024, in games where he's thrown at least one interception.

It's an upsetting 72-138.

Tums are in the medicine cabinet next to the Gas-X, in case you were looking for it.

A lot feeds into this the failings that have led to a 3-4 start, and I'd be remiss if I didn't also mention how the Cowboys' defense continues to starve for takeaways that could wash away some of the offensive misgivings, and how penalties on both sides of the ball (often untimely and critical) make finding and sustaining success exponentially more difficult.

That means that, caught in the midst of a perfect storm of inefficiency, injury, self-inflicted wounds and miscommunication, the Cowboys need to use anything at their disposal to try and save the season.

And if that means Prescott needs to run as little as two more times per game, only two (ish), to try and save the season until and after the Avengers return from injury to help him level the playing field, so be it.

It's as Captain America once stated oh so eloquently in his desperation to change the course of the universe in the face of Thanos:

Whatever it takes.

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