FRISCO, Texas – The NFL Draft is near upon us. Just four weeks away.
The Dallas Cowboys' 64-year draft history strongly suggests:
Just relax.
These Cowboys have been pretty darn good at this selection process of college football players when positioned in the top 17 of the draft order. In fact, sorta excellent.
And this year, 2025, now they finally reap the benefit of finishing the 2024 season with a mere 7-10 record, their .411 winning percentage the third lowest since those deflating three consecutive 5-11 seasons to start this 21st century (.312). The lowest win-percentage occurred in the 4-12 season of 2015 (.250) and the next lowest happened three times over 2004 (6-10), 2010 (6-10) and 2020 (6-10) coming in at .375.
Voila, the Cowboys are selecting at highly coveted No. 12, the fourth time in their draft history to do so. And remember, the NFL Draft in their inaugural 1960 season had already taken place, back in those days coming on Nov. 30, 1959, before being granted a franchise.
As we know, the meek shall inherit in the NFL's socialized system, trying to enhance parity by giving the have-nots the opportunity to have. No. 12 will match the Cowboys highest pick since 2021 when they selected Micah Parsons at the same spot, those now the highest since drafting Ezekiel Elliot in 2016 at No. 4.
That is the price you pay in this NFL for seasonal success without achieving the ultimate goal, if you know what I mean, in all those other years drafting somewhere between 19-28.
So why don't we turn the page back to the franchise's first actual draft, 1961 when with the 13th pick in the first round the Cowboys knocked it out of the park by selecting TCU defensive lineman Bob Lilly, and there is even a caveat to that. Two of them.
First, the Cowboys, having gone 0-11-1 in their very first NFL season already had traded away their 1961 first-round pick, which would have been the No. 1 pick, to Washington for veteran quarterback Eddie LeBaron. And they only had the 13th pick thanks to previously trading away their first-round pick in 1962 to Cleveland. That 13th pick represented the second to last in the first round at that time.
And in this team's entire draft history, the Cowboys only three times have selected No. 1 in the draft: defensive end Ed "Too Tall" Jones in 1974; quarterback Troy Aikman in 1989; and in 1991 defensive tackle Russell Maryland, but only because unwilling to match an unheard of guaranteed Canadian Football League contract offer to Rocket Ismail. So head coach Jimmy Johnson made an agreement with Maryland and agent Leigh Steinberg to make Russ the first pick in the draft if he would agree to a contract for less than what the No. 1 pick was projected to receive. They did.
Oh, also, had the Cowboys in 1989, after already selecting Aikman with that No. 1 choice, not bid their 1990 first-round pick to snag quarterback Steve Walsh in the Supplemental Draft, the Cowboys' 1-15 record would have earned them the first pick in that draft. Ha, very likely they would have not ended up with some running back from Florida named Emmitt Smith, though knowing they still had Minnesota's first-round pick at 21, thanks to the Herschel Walker trade, before trading up to No. 17.
Now then, let's review. When selecting in the top 17 of the NFL Draft, the Cowboys starting back in 1961 have turned seven of those 26 picks into Pro Football Hall of Famers, and consider one of those 26 choices, Scott Appleton with the fourth pick in 1964, decided to play in the AFL. Plus, two more, Tyron Smith at No. 9 in 2011 and Zack Martin at No. 16 in 2014, are on their way to the Hall of Fame.
And when it comes to those 25 top 17 picks, only six did not earn Pro Bowl honors. As for the other 19, they have totaled 100 Pro Bowl selections. Lilly leads the way with 11 with Randy White (selected second in 1975) and Martin (16th in 2014) next with nine each. Seven of the top selections have also been inducted into the Cowboys' famed Ring of Honor with no doubt Smith and Martin at some point on their way.
Not bad, eh?
Now let's look at this first-round draft success another way since Cowboys owner Jerry Jones bought the team in 1989. During these past 36 drafts, the Cowboys have numbered 34 first-round picks. Of those 34 overall firsts, 19 were Pro Bowl selections. And of those 19, 15 of them were drafted in the top 17. Of those selected 18th or later, only 12 Pro bowls total, with Travis Frederick at No. 31 in 2013 and Dez Bryant at No. 24 in 2010 accounting for eight of them.
So as you can see, the Cowboys have done a much better job of drafting when positioned in the top half of the NFL Draft, as they are this year at No. 12, than when drafting in the later 12 to 15 picks. That is how the system works, especially when considering that on average teams usually only have like 15 to 17 draftable players with first-round grades.
In the Cowboys draft history at either No. 12 or in the vicinity of No. 12, they have drafted three times at No. 12, selecting Parsons, wide receiver Alvin Harper and defensive tackle Danny Noonan. At No. 11, it's been wide receiver Michael Irvin and linebacker DeMarcus Ware, two Hall of Famers. Never at No.10, but at No. 9 Smith, certainly a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Then safety Roy Williams and defensive end Greg Ellis at No. 8, Hall of Famer Lilly at 13, never at Nos. 14 and 15, but hit gold at 16 with Martin and then at 17 with Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith, a potential one in CeeDee Lamb but also somewhat of a bust in Kevin Brooks in 1985. Hey, at 18 in 1975, the Cowboys found talented linebacker Thomas Henderson after taking Randy White with the second pick that year.
To sum this up, especially in the first round, the Cowboys have been extremely successful selecting players in the top half of the first and then not as much in the bottom half, though, let's face it, finding Tyler Smith at 24 in 2022, Leighton Vander Esch at 19 in 2018, Frederick at 31 in 2013 and Dez at 24 in 2010 is some good picking in the lower portion of the first.
Now the Cowboys must hit again at 12. Imperative they do. Find a Day 1 starter. Maybe even a Day 1 starter in the second round when considering they will be at 44, the 12th choice in that round, too. Higher the better, the percentages say, for success. And for sure at No. 12, the Cowboys will have several players available with first-round grades as opposed to those vanishing when selecting in the 20s.
Come on, not to fret selecting in such a catbird seat.
