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Science Lab: Cowboys compensatory picks and possible impact on free agency, 2025 NFL Draft

3_12_ Science Lab

FRISCO, Texas — Don't look now, but the Dallas Cowboys are walking into the 2025 NFL Draft with a fully loaded war chest at their disposal, thanks to the NFL's formula that dictates how compensatory picks are distributed.

A memo sent to all 32 teams on Tuesday, one day ahead of the start of the new league year, revealed the Cowboys will be awarded a total of four compensatory picks this April, bringing their overall number of picks to 10 — an absolute haul for a front office that, more often than not, is viewed as one of the best in the league at scouting and drafting.

Perfect? No, but the batting average for newly-extended vice president of player personnel Will McClay tells the full story, and he has plenty of capital to work with this time around.

Simply put, the more swings a team gets at the plate, the better.

As it stands, it's the most picks the Cowboys have had since 2021, a draft that saw them select Micah Parsons, Osa Odighizuwa, Chauncey Golston and Israel Mukuamu; and the four picks awarded this year are tied for most in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers.

Now for a quick explainer, because you're a good person and you deserve to know things.

Size Matters (Sorry, Fellas)

Compensatory picks are exactly that: picks awarded to teams as compensation for free agents lost in the year prior with the goal of trying to maintain competitive balance. There's a complex formula that determines which contracts qualify and which do not, one the NFL refuses to divulge, but I'll try to give a quick one-over of how the Cowboys got to four compensatory picks this year.

The size of the contract earned by the free agent being lost by the Cowboys is a major determinant, the biggest one, actually, in who hits the qualifier as a potential comp pick, which means you can throw out any one-year, veteran minimum deals from this equation.

  • Tyron Smith: $12.5 million APY - 5th round
  • Dorance Armstrong Jr.: $11.45 million APY - 5th round
  • Tyler Biadasz: $9.75 million APY - 5th round
  • Tony Pollard: $7.25 million APY - 5th round
  • Dante Fowler Jr.: $3.25 million APY - 6th round

[Note: The formula is also based upon salary percentile and not simply APY but, for the purposes of illustrating the machinations of it, APY serves as a more relatable and still accurate measuring stick.]

To that point, take a look at the players above whose departure in 2023's free agency spree earned a comp pick in Dallas, the APY (average per year) for each and the corresponding pick awarded. It's also key to note that although defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins also left, to join Aden Durde with the Seattle Seahawks, his APY fell below the Mendoza Line at just $2.05 million.

As such, no comp pick was received by Dallas, and none of the players the Cowboys lost landed megadeals that would've qualified them for a fourth-round pick or higher.

Cancel Culture

But wait, there's another determinant in the final formula, as regulated by the NFL, and that's what contracts the Cowboys acquire themselves in free agency, of course, because large contract could negate the qualifier for a possible comp pick — e.g., had they signed a big-money free agent in 2023 that rivaled the deal Tyron Smith got from the Jets, it would've been calculated as a wash in the comp formula.

They didn't, however, and actually signed no one to a deal that would cancel out a comp pick, with their biggest splashes in 2023 being the acquisition of cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks via trade alongside a slew of one- or two-year deals that were attached to minimal APY salaries.

This time around, because I know you're wondering, the projection for 2026 comp picks is off to a net zero start as the APY of both offensive lineman Robert Jones and defensive lineman Solomon Thomas likely erase what was gained by the APY given to cornerback Jourdan Lewis (by the Jacksonville Jaguars) and defensive lineman Chauncey Golston (by the New York Giants).

Thus far, those are the only three qualifying contracts on either side of the comp pick scale.

You still with me on all of this? Of course you are, because science.

Additionally, there's a not-so-hidden caveat in all of this that says if a player is released from another team before their contract expires and then signed by the Cowboys, that player does not negate any possible comp picks already in play.

Example: The Rams release "WR XXCK" before the comp deadline in late spring, and the Cowboys sign him. No matter the size of the deal, it would not negate any comp picks for 2026.

It's important to differentiate between the players signed as unrestricted free agents and those signed after being cut by another team, and I'm here to tell you the Cowboys routinely keep this in mind when factoring in who they'll sign, to how much money and when they'll do it — seeing as signing free agents after the deadline in late spring also avoids jeopardizing comp picks.

This is especially true when factoring in how comp picks can be traded away.

Wink, wink.

Take Your Pick

And without further adieu, having a better understanding of how comp picks work, we can now take a look at what the current complete pick haul looks like for the Cowboys as of March 11.

It is quite chunky.

Chunky and funky, as a matter of fact. Word to the late, great Heavy D.

  • Round 1: 12 overall
  • Round 2: 44 overall
  • Round 3: 76 overall
  • Round 5: 149 overall
  • Round 5: 170 overall (compensatory)
  • Round 5: 171 overall (compensatory)
  • Round 5: 174 overall (compensatory)
  • Round 6: 188 overall
  • Round 6: 211 overall (compensatory)
  • Round 7: 247 overall

Gaining three extra fifth-round picks is a huge deal for a team that sent a fourth-round pick in this year's draft to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo ahead of last year's trade deadline. It gives them an opportunity to either package picks to move back up and acquire a fourth or to get very near that round, to sit tight and walk away with four rookies in the fifth round alone, or to package the picks in a trade to another team to acquire a veteran player for 2025 and beyond.

That flexibility will be important as the Cowboys both navigate free agency, should a predraft trade scenario come a'calling, and throughout the first two days of the draft to determine if they should stand pat or pack up the U-Haul and move around in the NFL draft order.

With the added firepower of four comp picks, things could and hopefully would get very interesting for a team that has so many holes to fill.

And they've got plenty of shovels now.

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