FRISCO, TX — The thing about Father Time is, for better or for worse, it ages everything. That is typically, how it goes, but there is something wildly atypical about the relationship he shares with the Dallas Cowboys in 2024 because, though the clocks continue to wind from left to right, this version of the Cowboys are moving counterclockwise to start the season.
Instead of taking another step or two forward over three consecutive 12-5 seasons that saw them become the most dominant NFL team at home, they've become the worst NFL team at home and by a wide margin.
Their saving grace has been their 3-0 record on the road to balance their 0-3 record at AT&T Stadium, but while those road wins, save for the gritty showing in Pittsburgh, aren't exactly anything to write home about, it is truly the ongoings in Arlington that are painfully disturbing.
The regression is enough to make Benjamin Button's face flush a cherry red hue.
Point differential at home (YoY)
2023: (+78) 111 scored, 33 allowed (3-0 record)
2024: (-66) 53 scored, 119 allowed (0-3 record)
Since losing to the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs in January, the Cowboys have allowed an astounding 167 combined points over their last four home games — third-worst in NFL history over a four-game home stretch — while only mustering 85 points of their own. To put it plainly, the dam has broken on defense and the offense can't find any sandbags to try and turn the tide.
And, as such, the entire village is being washed away with each attempted homestand.
Things fare a bit better on the road, though, where the Cowboys are supposed to have a disadvantage against the opponent and not an advantage.
Point differential on the road (YoY)
2023: (-4) 66 scored, 70 allowed (1-2 record)
2024: (+24) 73 scored, 49 allowed (3-0 record)
Holy overcorrection, Batman.
And so it goes that there are many reasons, and not just one or two, that have created this slide at home — one that rivals an MLB play at the plate. Points scored versus points allowed, the subsets of rushing and passing yards generated (a decline in both have occurred) versus rushing and passing yards allowed (an increase in both have occurred), and then there are pipelines that contribute to those as well.
Motion before the snap can rightfully be viewed as one such item, as can see below.
Pre-snap Motion at Home (%)
2023: 43.4 (vs. NYJ), 50.7 (vs. NE), 57.1 (vs. LAR) = 50.4 average
2024: 51.5 (vs. NO), 35.7 (vs. BAL), 52.3 (vs. DET) = 46.5 average
It's pleasantly surprising to note that there are instances when the Cowboys are running more pres-nap motion than not, but a decline in four percentage points (average YoY) is telling of how they're slowly trusting it less than they did in 2023 — the season wherein the offense in Dallas enjoyed a rabid uptick in pre-snap motion.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have career seasons in 2023??
You bet your ass they did.
And yes, all things feed to the other thing so, in having that discussion, be sure to add the uneven and often absent ground attack that is itself fueled by subsets like run blocking inefficiency, continually sorting through the committee approach and the defense getting off to slow starts that have forced the Cowboys to become one-dimensional in each home game.
That is forcing Prescott to throw far more often, but without the benefit of play-action and with a downturn in pre-snap motion as well.
Everything is aging backwards in Dallas.
Well, not everything, they're at least consistent in their number penalties at home.
Penalties
2023: 15 penalties, 91 yards lost
2024: 14 penalties, 100 lost
Then again, when you add in context of the type of penalties being committed and, more importantly, the timing of them — e.g., offensive holding in the red zone — even that reveals an added chapter to the tale of woe that has become a home field disadvantage in Dallas.
It's not difficult to ascertain just how focused the Cowboys were this offseason on finally becoming team that could consistently win on the road, but it appears it came attached to what one could argue was a sense of comfort that, no matter what, they'd continue to win at home as they had since suffering the 19-3 loss against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season.
McCarthy then led the team to a league-best 16 consecutive wins at home, one that was abruptly obliterated by the Packers in the postseason, and while the team continuously notes how they're no longer thinking about that contest, it's impossible to not see it as a pivot point in this timeline.
It is literally the moment when the entire NFL began to believe they could defeat the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium and, moreover, exactly how to do it to the same degree that Green Bay had.
So while that game has zero bearing on each rep being played this season, it has everything to do with the macro of how teams have taken Matt LaFleur's blueprint, and psychology, to deploy it against Dallas, time and again.
It would be disingenuous to not point out the caliber of opponent and how that factors into all of this as well, though.
Strength of Opponent
Home:
2023: Jets, Patriots, Rams
2024: Saints, Ravens, Lions
Road:
2023: Giants, Cardinals, 49ers
2024: Browns, Giants, Steelers
Playing a bit of "what if" here, would you be willing to argue that if the Cowboys played the Browns, Giants and Steelers at home this season and the Saints, Ravens and Lions on the road that they'd potentially be 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road heading into the bye week?
Based on all of the variables, injuries included (though let's not pretend they weren't struggling before losing star players) right alongside issues with execution and self-discipline, I could concede to that likely being the outcome of such an experiment.
And that's where we come to an eye-opening, uncomfortable theory that, until/unless proven otherwise, the Cowboys will have to contend with while they’re looking in the mirror over the next several days of their bye week: maybe this is currently just an average team against bad teams and a bad team against good ones.
After all, through the first six games, that's precisely what the evidence supports, and one can never, ever achieve their potential if their perception of what's looking back at them in the mirror is what they want to see as opposed to what they need to see.
That means it's time for tough love and hard truths while there are still opportunities to turn that prideless self-awareness into improvement and growth.
And do it before time runs out, yet again, but once and for all.
Our lives are defined by opportunities; even the ones we miss.
