FRISCO, Texas – The Cowboys have won three out of their last four games heading into the final three weeks of the season and need to make it four out of five on Sunday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they want to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. How can they do it? Let's break down a few paths to victory in this week's edition of "Here We Goooo"
1. Keep Rico hot on the ground
Dallas finding their stride in the run game has been a huge component of why they've won three of their last four games, and Rico Dowdle deserves a lot of the credit for that. It took a while for him to become Dallas' lead back, but ever since he took over that role, he's improved week in and week out. His career-high 149 yards against the Panthers last Sunday marked his third straight game with 100 or more yards on the ground, the first time a Cowboy running back has done that since Ezekiel Elliott in 2019.
If he wants to stretch that streak to four games, he'll have to do it against a Buccaneers defense that loads the box at the highest rate in the NFL (58.2% of plays this season). With that comes good news, and bad news.
Let's start with the bad news: Cowboys rushers are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry against loaded boxes in 2024, good for the fifth worst rate in the league. Dowdle hasn't seen a lot of that look defensively this season, with only 29 carries for 127 yards (4.4 yards per carry) against that defensive approach.
Now for the good news: When rushing between the tackles, Dowdle has 256 rushing yards and +81 yards over expected since Week 13, both of which are the most in the NFL. Additionally, he's also put up the most missed tackles (12) and yards following missed tackles (110) in the league in that same time span. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed +75 yards over expected on rushes between the tackles in 2024, the fourth most in the league this season.
Simply put, the Cowboys need to continue to run well behind Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe, and Brock Hoffman – assuming that's the interior trio that Dallas trots out on Sunday night. Dowdle's been able to find success with all kinds of combinations up front, but those three are the best that Dallas has up front right now, and can be a game changer if they start to lean on the Buccaneers' defensive front throughout the course of the game.
2. Take away the Bucs' quick, short game on offense
Baker Mayfield's fresh start in Tampa Bay has been a resounding success for all parties involved, and a lot of it has to do with Mayfield's efficiency in the short passing game. 70% of his pass attempts in 2024 have been under 10 air yards, the fifth highest rate in the NFL. On those passes, he's racked up 2,238 yards and 20 touchdowns, both the most in the NFL and most in a single year of his career.
Having consistent, reliable receiving options like Mike Evans and Cade Otton are a huge part in that as well, as Evans is slowing creeping up on what could be his 11th straight 1,000 yard receiving season and Otton has emerged as a great security blanket for Mayfield at the tight end position, hauling in 600 yards and four touchdowns.
This'll be a big test for Dallas' second and third levels on defense. Offenses that work under 10 air yards this season on passes have found a lot of success, as the Cowboys are giving up the most yards per attempt (6.9) and sixth most yards after the catch per reception (6.4) on those kinds of passes.
It's a steep challenge for Dallas' linebackers as well, as rookie running back Bucky Irving has had a phenomenal rookie campaign so far. Notably, he's breaking tackles left and right, forcing a missed tackle on 36.8% of his carries, the highest rate in the league and seventh highest by a player since 2019. After breaking a tackle, Irving has gained 498 additional yards, good for third in the league behind Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. He's a threat as a receiver too, so Eric Kendricks and Marist Liufau will need to have a big game and follow Irving around the field to keep him in check.
3. Now's the time to get turnovers in bunches
Mike McCarthy has said plenty of times this season that turnovers come in bunches, and now needs to be the time for that to be the case. The good news for the Cowboys is it kind of already is, as Dallas is +6 in turnover margin over their last four games.
The opportunity to get turnovers is amplified in this game, as Baker Mayfield's gunslinger play style can sometimes lead to giving the ball away. He's thrown 14 interceptions this season and fumbled nine times, but has only lost one.
How does Dallas make it happen? Lean on the pass rush. Micah Parsons being back in the lineup has, expectedly, done wonders for what the Cowboys defense can do at every level. Since his return in Week 10, the Cowboys lead the league in sacks (24) and have the third most turnovers generated (13).
Even better, the pressure is getting to the quarterback fast. Parsons is tied for the fourth most quick pressures in the league this year (27), and guys around him like Carl Lawson and Osa Odighizuwa are also getting home on the quarterback and making things difficult. If Mayfield is under duress, the opportunities are there to force errant throws or strip sacks, something that becomes increasingly possible on third down, where Mike Zimmer's unit is third in the league in conversion percentage (34.1%).
