FRISCO, TX — A feeling of having already experienced a previous situation — is the literal definition of deja vu. There is no better way to describe the sinking feeling that took hold of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2, much like heartworms devouring what was, one week prior, an absolute dog of a defense from the inside out.
There is so much to unpack when looking at the luggage of the 44-19 humiliation at AT&T Stadium on Sept. 15, at the hands of what turned out to be a stunningly efficient and explosive offense tethered to a defense that would bend but refused to continually break. Looking ahead to the Baltimore Ravens is wise, given what's at stake the caliber of opponent heading to Arlington in Week 3, but something bigger is at play, overall, when discussing the Cowboys' fate as of late.
His name is Kyle Shanahan, and even his proxies are keeping Dallas from taking the next step in their evolution.
For the sake of comparison, a look at how the offenses fared Sept. 15, with both a brief history lesson and a foreshadowing of what's to come if the Cowboys can't escape the House of Horrors owned by Shanahan.
Saints offensive drives vs. Cowboys
- No. 1: Touchdown - 7 plays, 80 yards, 4:10
- No. 2: Touchdown - 1 play, 70 yards, 0:09
- No. 3: Touchdown - 4 plays, 70 yards, 2:09
- No. 4: Touchdown - 11 plays, 70 yards, 4:55
- No. 5: Touchdown - 3 plays, 20 yards, 0:23
- No. 6: Touchdown - 13 plays, 70 yards, 7:56
- No. 7: Interception
- No. 8: Punt - 6 plays, 9 yards, 2:16
- No. 9: Field goal (26-yarder) - 4 plays, 5 yards, 2:38
———> QB change from Derek Carr to Jake Haener
- No. 10: QB kneels
What immediately jumps out here is the glaringly obvious: the Cowboys' defense had absolutely no answers whatsoever for Klint Kubiak's offense, and considering it's a variation of Kyle Shanahan's (much like Matt LaFleur's is as well, hint hint), it doesn't exactly shovel in piles of confidence for the long haul — with yet another meeting with the 49ers waiting in Week 8.
But, more importantly, it's likely that should the Cowboys make the playoffs as I believe they will (I still believe this is a 12-win team, but that means four more losses are coming), their path to the Super Bowl will likely involve going through a Shanahanian offense.
Whether that's the 49ers, the Packers or should the Rams figure out a way to get into the playoffs, as they often do, the Cowboys' defense will probably have to pass the test.
As the laws of the universe go, you will continually face the thing you fear most until you finally defeat it.
And if you're wondering how to bottle up such an offense, it's all about stopping the running back from having their way as a receiver in space and on edge runs — the bread and butter for Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, etc. — to force the runs inside (where your defensive tackles have to win) and the game more onto the arm of the opposing quarterback so that when the pass rush is dialed up, it will actually matter and, as such, impact the game through poor throws and sacks.
The best way to negate a pass rush on a passing rep is through quick tosses (see Kamara's 57-yard touchdown for reference), as it forces the defense to begin playing on its heels and softens the middle of the trench for A and B gap runs, then getting you to overcommit to that in compensation for the first issue and, voila, it becomes time to take the top off with a deep shot or two.
Delete the running back, in all ways, and you'll delete a gargantuan chunk of a Shanahan playbook. In the playoff loss to the Niners, McCaffrey had only 57 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown. Deebo Samuel, a quasi-RB, had only 56 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns. Brock Purdy was then unable to take over the game, and the Niners finished with only 19 points in a game the Cowboys could've and should've won (the loss of Tony Pollard looms large in that outcome).
And the Cowboys were able to achieve that with a linebackers' corps that started Anthony Barr, who was a shell of himself at the time. That is to say this current corps of LBs, being faster, quicker, more physical and with greater depth at the position, simply needs to execute better.
The rest will handle itself.
Cowboys offensive drives vs. Saints
- No. 1: Field goal (52-yarder) - 13 plays, 45 yards, 6:36
- No. 2: Field goal (38-yarder) - 14 plays, 41 yards, 7:26
- No. 3: Touchdown - 4 plays, 78 yards, 1:47
- No. 4: Interception
- No. 5: Field goal (48-yarder) - 7 plays, 40 yards, 0:39
- No. 6: Field goal (40-yarder) - 10 plays, 51 yards, 5:55
- No. 7: Turnover on downs - 9 plays, 54 yards, 2:54
- No. 8: Interception - 1 play, 0 yards, 0:05
- No. 9: Turnover on downs - 4 plays, 1 yard, 1:40
———> QB change from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush
- No. 10: Punt - 4 plays, 0:54
As for the Cowboys' offense, in situations where the defense struggles against the Shanahan principles, the onus will be upon them to not just match serve, but to also overpower them with touchdowns and, in Week 2, that didn't happen. Nor did it happen on Super Wild Card Weekend or in Week 4 of the 2023 season in the latest loss against the 49ers.
It could've and should've occurred on the trek to South Beach last season against Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins, but didn't, and time will tell if they win the Battle of Texas against DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik, more Shanahan disciples and ones that operate as head coach and offensive coordinator of the Houston Texans, respectively, when the two sides square off in Week 11.
Ah, but it did happen against McVay's bunch in Week 8, when the Cowboys pulled the horns off of a fully-loaded Rams team and beat them into submission with them. In that outing, Dallas' defense held Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and a talented backfield to only two offensive touchdowns and 20 total points.
They were also introduced to DaRon Bland, the eventual pick-six king.
Meanwhile, Prescott and the offense hung four touchdowns on McVay, finishing the majority of their drives with visits to pay dirt while Brandon Aubrey was trotted out for only two field goal attempts, in contrast to four he booted against the Saints out of a total 19 points scored by the Cowboys.
That won't cut it against the blood of Shanahan.
Kevin O'Connell has also been thrashed by the Cowboys to the tune of 40-3 in Week 10 of the 2022 season, so it's not as if they can't do it. It's that they haven't proven they can do it consistently — regardless of who the defensive coordinator has been.
What will finally do the job is continuing to extend drives on offense, as the Cowboys were able to do against the Saints, but trading touchdowns for field goals? The math ain't mathing.
The Conjuring
Finish the drives with six points (a guaranteed seven, because Brandon Aubrey), something that could've happened on several occasions in Week 2, as the film readily points out, to own time of possession, and to capitalize on turnovers.
When the defense was finally able to get a takeaway, namely an interception by Donovan Wilson in the second half, Prescott threw an interception on the next play and returned the ball back to the Saints. He wants that throw back, but since he can't have it back, it's all about not repeating the mistake going forward.
Giving any offense extra possessions in this league will end up biting you in the backside, but when that offense is of the Shanahan bloodline, you're writing your own eulogy.
There's so much good to take away from Week 1, and there's so much bad to take away from Week 2. But there was also bad to take away from Week 1 and, believe it or not, some good to take away from Week 2 (third-down conversion rate improved, for example).
We'll all know what this Cowboys' team is when the sun rises on Oct. 28, the first day of Week 9 and only a few hours after the latest battle with the Niners, and even more so by the time the turkey and dressing is on your plate in late November.
Overlook no one between now and then, because there is no luxury to do so, but even if the Cowboys go on a four-game win streak heading into the bye week and eventual game in Santa Clara, there will still be the storm cloud following their vehicle down the expressway.
Until they prove they can consistently defeat the Haunting of Shanahan, the horror movie will continue.
Because deja vu.
